The August jobs report was not expected to reveal a real change in the path of the “meh” recovery – but it was expected to be crucial to the path of Fed policy.
The “meh” economy lumbers on. Leading into the report, the high-frequency data (ADP Employment Report, ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing) were mixed – an accurate forecast for the report itself. Top-line growth showed an unspectacular 215,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady.
I wrote (unflatteringly) about the February jobs report: “Doughnuts look good. Doughnuts even taste good. But doughnuts have a hole in the middle and really can’t nourish you.” June looks like another doughnut, with no wage growth and limited jobs growth.
The May jobs report was filled with good news. The top-line jobs growth was 280,000 and past jobs growth – particularly the awful March report – was revised up. Job growth was more widespread than in April.
The April jobs report was a return to a familiar pattern. Job growth was solid – up 223,000 – but not dramatic. Meanwhile jobs in March were revised down from the already-weak 126,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percent to 5.4 percent even as labor force participation climbed by 0.1 to 62.8 percent. Good moves in the right direction.
The March jobs report was quite weak. There were 126,000 jobs created and downward revisions of 69,000 in January and February. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 5.5 percent because the labor force fell by 96,000 as the labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.7 percent.
Doughnuts look good. Doughnuts even taste good. But doughnuts have a hole in the middle and really can’t nourish you.
The January employment report showed real strength across the board. Payroll jobs were up 257,000, while November and December were revised upward by 147,000. Usually the good news ends there. In January average hourly earnings were up by 0.5 percent – and up 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. Average hours were flat, however, but overall the combination of jobs and earnings was a positive sign for the labor market.
The December payroll jobs showed real strength. Payroll jobs were up 252,000 and October and November (originally at 321,000 jobs) were revised upward. But the good news ends there. Average hourly earnings were down 0.2 percent (and the strong November number was revised down) and the average hours were flat. Jobs and no income has become the signature of the labor market.
The payroll survey is incredible: 321,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings up 0.4 per-cent. Average workweek up strongly. This is the kind of job report that has been long awaited because there are jobs, hours, and wages creating income.