U6 Fix

A Sign of Job Market Cooling

Gains in payroll employment remained steady in June as employers added 206,000 new hires to their payrolls. Data for April and May were downwardly revised to show 111,000 fewer jobs created during those months than previously reported. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1 percent. Wage growth dipped below 4 percent. The softer topline number, downward revisions, slowing wage growth, and a continued uptick in the unemployment rate suggest that the labor market might finally be cooling. The Federal Reserve will likely welcome this report as the job market remains strong but expanding at a pace more consistent with its inflation target.

Employers added 206,000 new hires to their payrolls in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector firms hired 136,000 new workers, while government at all levels added 70,000 new employees. Goods-producing industries added 19,000 new workers, an uptick from the prior month’s 12,000. Construction led the way with 27,000 workers added to the payrolls. Manufacturers, meanwhile, cut 8,000 jobs in June after adding zero in the prior month. Service-providing industries’ employment climbed 117,000. Health care and social assistance services continued to lead the sector, adding 82,4000 jobs. The pace of hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector downshifted, up just 7,000 compared to the 22,000 added in May. Continuing to lag was employment in temporary help services, which slashed 48,900 jobs. The retail trade sector also saw job losses totaling 8,500. Data for April was revised down by 57,000 and the change in May was cut by 54,000. Combined, employment gains were 111,000 lower than previously reported.

The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1 percent, the highest level since November 2021. The labor force participation rate inched up 0.1 percentage points to 62.6 percent as 277,000 workers entered the labor force. The household and payroll surveys were more aligned in June compared to prior months. According to surveyed households, the number of employed rose by 116,000, while the number of unemployed rose 162,000.

Gains in average hourly slowed compared to the prior month, up 10 cents in June – a 0.3-percent monthly gain – after rising 0.4 percent in May. Earnings were up 3.9 percent from a year ago. Average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers increased by 10 cents, for a 0.3-percent monthly gain.

Data junkies, here’s your fix: The June U-6 (the broadest measure of unemployment) held steady at 7.4 percent for the third consecutive month.

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