U6 Fix
November 1, 2024
October Jobs Report Shows Impact of Hurricanes and Worker Strikes on Data Collection
Job growth ticked down significantly in October as employers added just 12,000 new workers to their payrolls, after adding a stunning 254,000 new workers in September. The October jobs report features some of the most skewed monthly employment data in years, as October job growth was heavily suppressed by disruptions from hurricanes and major worker strikes. Nevertheless, the October jobs report shows a labor market that continues to cool, and in conjunction with the other positive economic news reported this week – strong 3rd quarter economic growth and inflation close to the Fed’s 2-percent target – another interest rate cut is likely when the Fed meets later this month.
Employers added just 12,000 new hires to their payrolls in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – 242,000 fewer hires than the 254,000 reported in September. Private-sector firms lost 28,000 workers, a significant downturn (-251,000) from the 223,000 hired in September. Government hiring increased to 40,000 new employees from 31,000 in September. Goods-producing industries lost 37,000 jobs after 21,000 new workers were added in September. Hiring in the construction sector expanded as 8,000 workers were added to the payrolls, but this was a 68-percent decline (-17,000 jobs) from the 25,000 jobs added in September. Manufacturers, meanwhile, shed 46,000 jobs in October. Service-providing industries employment increased by 9,000. Hiring in the health care and social services sector remained strong, gaining 51,400 jobs. The pace of hiring in leisure and hospitality fell by 4,000 jobs. Employment in temporary help services continued to drag, cutting 48,500 jobs. The information services sector saw a slight uptick of 3,000 jobs added in October. Data for August was revised down by 81,000 and data for September was decreased by 31,000. Combined, employment gains were 112,000 lower than previously reported.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent. The labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 62.6 percent, after holding steady at 62.7 percent for three consecutive months, as 220,000 workers left the labor force. The household and payroll surveys continued to move in the same direction. According to surveyed households, the number of employed persons fell by 368,000 – a massive downturn from the 430,000 increase in employed workers reported in September – while the number of unemployed persons rose by 150,000 – a significant uptick from falling by 281,000 in September.
Gains in average hourly earnings jumped 13 cents in October – a 0.4-percent monthly increase, though smaller than the 13-cent gain in September. Earnings were up 4.0 percent from a year ago, the same as reported in September. Average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers increased by 12 cents, a 0.4-percent monthly gain.
Data junkies, here’s your fix: The October U-6 (the broadest measure of unemployment) held steady at 7.7 percent.