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September Jobs Report Crushes Expectations, May Be Last “Normal” One for a While

Job growth picked up sizably in September as employers added 254,000 new workers to their payrolls. The September jobs report is the latest evidence that the labor market has cooled off over the course of 2024, though it isn’t moderating at a rate that suggests a larger interest rate cut is coming from the Federal Reserve when it meets in November. In fact, the September jobs report may be the last normal one for a while. The devastation from Hurricane Helene, the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike, and the possible resumption of the strike at U.S. ports along the East Cost and Gulf Coast may heavily distort future reports.

Employers added 254,000 new hires to their payrolls in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – 112,000 more hires than the 142,000 reported in August. Private-sector firms hired 223,000 new workers, a significant uptick (+105,000) from the 118,000 hired in August. Government hiring increased to 31,000 new employees from 24,000 in August. Goods-producing industries added 21,000 new workers, more than double the 10,000 new workers added in August. Hiring in the construction sector contracted as 25,000 workers were added to the payrolls, a 26 percent  decline (-9,000 jobs) from the 34,000 jobs added in August. Manufacturers, meanwhile, shed 7,000 jobs in September. Service-providing industries employment increased to 202,000 from 108,000 in August. Hiring in the health care and social services sector remained strong, gaining 71,700 jobs. The pace of hiring in leisure and hospitality climbed by 78,000 jobs. Employment in temporary help services continued to drag, cutting 13,800 jobs. The information services sector also saw a slight uptick of 4,000 jobs added in September. Data for July was revised up by 55,000 and data for August was increased by 17,000. Combined, employment gains were 72,000 higher than previously reported.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.2 percent to 4.1 percent. The labor force participation rate remained constant at 62.7 percent for the third consecutive month as just 150,000 workers entered the labor force. The household and payroll surveys continued to move in the same direction. According to surveyed households, the number of employed persons rose by 430,000 – a massive uptick from 168,000 in August – while the number of unemployed persons dipped by 281,000 – a significant drop from the 48,000 in August.

Gains in average hourly earnings jumped 13 cents in August – a 0.4 percent monthly increase, though smaller than the 14 cents gain in August. Earnings were up 4.0 percent from a year ago, up from the 3.8 percent reported in August. Average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers increased by 8 cents, a 0.3 percent monthly gain.

Data junkies, here’s your fix: The September U-6 (the broadest measure of unemployment) ticked down 0.2 percentage points to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in August.  

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