Fiscal Policy Outlook July, FY2023 Snapshot 2022: $1,375 Billion Deficit HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SPENDING AND TAXATION MANDATORY SPENDING CROWDS OUT THE BUDGET 1972 MANDATORY SPENDING CROWDS OUT THE BUDGET 2022 MAJOR COMPONENTS OF MANDATORY SPENDING Social Security Medicare ENTITLEMENTS AND INTEREST IS SQUEEZING OTHER PRIORITIES THE U.S. IS BORROWING TO PAY INTEREST COSTS The U.S. Runs a Structural Primary Deficit DEBT ON AN UPWARD TRAJECTORY DEBT ULTIMATELY APPROACHES 2 TIMES THE SIZE OF THE ECONOMY WHAT DRIVES OUR DEBT? Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Raises Costs Congressional Budget Process Timetable Chart Book Index Fiscal Policy Outlook July, FY2023 Snapshot 2022: $1,375 Billion Deficit HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SPENDING AND TAXATION MANDATORY SPENDING CROWDS OUT THE BUDGET 1972 MANDATORY SPENDING CROWDS OUT THE BUDGET 2022 MAJOR COMPONENTS OF MANDATORY SPENDING Social Security Medicare ENTITLEMENTS AND INTEREST IS SQUEEZING OTHER PRIORITIES THE U.S. IS BORROWING TO PAY INTEREST COSTS The U.S. Runs a Structural Primary Deficit DEBT ON AN UPWARD TRAJECTORY DEBT ULTIMATELY APPROACHES 2 TIMES THE SIZE OF THE ECONOMY WHAT DRIVES OUR DEBT? Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Raises Costs Congressional Budget Process Timetable Share Chart Book
Consumer Price Index May 2024 M/M Change: +0.0% Y/Y Change: +3.3% Measures the change in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households.
Core Consumer Price Index May 2024 M/M Change: +0.2% Y/Y Change: +3.4% Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index May 2024 M/M Change: +0.1% Y/Y Change: +2.6% A measure of prices paid for goods and services excluding food and energy; the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Producer Price Index May 2024 M/M Change: -0.2% Y/Y Change: +2.2% Measures the change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.
Initial Jobless Claims Week ending June 29, 2024 238,000 Change: +4,000 4-week Moving Average: 238,500 Weekly unemployment insurance claims reported by each state’s unemployment insurance program offices.
Consumer Sentiment June 2024 Index: 68.2 Change: -0.9 The core questions cover three broad areas of consumer sentiment: personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions.
ADP Employment: June 2024 Change in U.S. Private Employment: +150,000 Measures change in private-sector employment using ADP payroll data covering more than half a million companies with more than 25 million employees.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft May 2024 $73.6B M/M Change: -0.6% Y/Y Change: -0.2% A new order is a communication of an intention to buy for immediate or future delivery.
New Residential Housing Starts May 2024 1,277,000 M/M Change: -5.5% Y/Y Change: -19.3% Privately owned housing starts; seasonally adjusted at an annual rate.