After three years of providing penalties and bonuses to hospitals treating Medicare patients through the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) Program, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has found that the amount of a hospital’s payment adjustment is well-aligned with the hospital’s net income—hospitals with a higher net income received the largest bonuses. This finding is not all that surprising (with one exception: hospitals in the lowest net income range in 2013 had the second-highest payment adjustment in 2015). While potentially a chicken-and-egg situation, hospitals with low or negative net income are not likely to have the available resources necessary to make needed improvements. When a hospital is penalized for its poor performance, the situation worsens. In all three years, average payment adjustments for safety net hospitals were negative. Interestingly, the most commonly cited challenge to improving quality was health information technology (IT), which every hospital is being required to utilize in the hopes that such technology will catalyze quality improvements. Additionally, the GAO found “no apparent shift... in hospitals’ performance on the quality measures included in the HVBP program”.
The Kaiser Family Foundation recently released polling on Americans’ views of the pharmaceutical industry and the costs of prescription medications. Not particularly surprisingly, 55 percent of those polled expressed an unfavorable opinion of these companies and 72 percent said the cost of prescription drugs was unreasonable. Perhaps more surprising is that Kaiser reported 83 percent supported allowing the government to negotiate drug prices in Medicare, and 76 percent supported limiting the amount companies can charge for high-cost drugs.
A little-used social security payment rule and its connection to Medicare Part B premium increases has become a concern for many policymakers. Part B premiums will increase by half for 25 percent of enrollees, while the other 75 percent of beneficiaries will be spared any premium increase at all due to a Hold Harmless provision. A July report on Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) indicated there will be no 2016 increase in payments to offset the Medicare Part B premium increase, but a Hold Harmless provision will protect three-quarters of Medicare beneficiaries from these premium increases while shifting the entire burden to the other 25 percent of beneficiaries. This shift will cause monthly premiums to increase from $104.90 to $159.30 for 25 percent of beneficiaries. State Medicaid agencies will pick up a substantial share of the $500 million tab for dual eligibles in 2016, while high-income beneficiaries could see their premiums spike to over $500.
Between January 2011 and May 2015, less than $10 million in Medicare Part D improper payments had been recovered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—less than 0.14 percent of improper payments made during this time period. Over the last decade, approximately 4 percent of all federal government payments each year were improper, but 9.5 percent of all Medicare and Medicaid payments last year were improper. Medicare and Medicaid have accounted for half of all improper payments by the federal government over the last 11 years, and since 2009, these two programs have been responsible for at least 55 percent of all improper payments each year. In 2014, Medicare Fee–for-Service (Parts A & B) accounted for 37 percent of all improper payments by the federal government; Medicare Advantage (Part C): 10 percent; Medicare Part D: 2 percent; and Medicaid: 14 percent.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) recently released payment data for the 100 most commonly billed discharges by Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) at more than 3,000 hospitals using the Inpatient Prospective Payment System (IPPS) in 2013. These payments represent over 7 million discharges, or 60 percent of the total IPPS discharges billed to Medicare that year. The following chart shows the top 10 costliest DRGs to the Medicare system as a whole, counting payments by both the government (and/or supplemental private insurance) and beneficiaries (including copayments and deductibles). These 10 DRGs were responsible for nearly 1.7 million discharges with total payments per discharge averaging nearly $23,000 for a total cost of more than $26 billion. As illustrated, much of the cost is driven by the number of discharges—particularly for major joint replacement (DRG 470) and septicemia (DRG 871)—rather than the cost of the services. Percutaneous cardiovascular procedure (DRG 247) was the only DRG in this top 10 that was not also in the top 10 for number of discharges or average total payments per discharge.
The Department of Defense (DOD) provides health care for 9.5 million military service members, retirees, and family members through military treatment facilities (MTFs) and a self-funded, self-administered insurance program called TRICARE. The mission of the military health care system is to maintain the health of military personnel, and their families, so that they are capable of carrying out their missions, and to ensure that military medical personnel are prepared to deliver all necessary health care services to any service member injured in battle.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) allowed the creation of non-profit consumer operated and oriented plans (co-ops) which would be allowed to sell health insurance to a state’s residents either on or off the newly-created Exchanges. These co-ops were eligible for both start-up and solvency loans, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) awarded $2.4 billion in loans to 23 new co-ops. One criteria for receiving such loans was a high probability of becoming financially viable. While most of the co-ops were expected to lose money in the first year (as most new businesses do), the Health and Human Services Office of the Inspector General found 19 of the 23 co-ops exceeded their projected losses; 10 co-ops lost more than $2,000 per enrollee. Projections show 11 co-ops are expected to still be losing money by the end of 2015. Maine’s co-op, the only one not to lose money in 2014, had the lowest priced plans (despite only drawing down 32 percent of the loans they were awarded and enrolling more than 2.5 times as many individuals as anticipated) and attracted 80 percent of the state’s marketplace consumers. The chart below shows the net loss per enrollee for each co-op by state, which averaged $2,712. The total loss was $539 million.
The old politics of Medicare reform were to demagogue any proposed reform as an attempt to “throw granny off the cliff” for political gain, base motives, or both. These politics were on full display in President Obama’s recent assertion: "Today, we're often told that Medicare and Medicaid are in crisis. But that's usually a political excuse to cut their funding, privatize them, or phase them out entirely -- all of which would undermine their core guarantee.”
Health plans should be paid to keep patients healthy. That is, when some percentage of patients with a chronic progressive disease may be expected to progress to the next stage of that disease in the course of a year, health plans should be paid if they can keep the percentage of patients progressing significantly below the expected level. Depending on the level of success in preventing disease progression, and the payment required to achieve that level of success, preliminary estimates suggest that annual program savings could range from several hundred million to almost $3 billion from chronic kidney disease alone. This is just the tip of the iceberg, since there are many other chronic progressive conditions that would be amenable to this sort of incentive system. Most important, because the payment for reducing disease progression can be calibrated to be lower than the payment for more severe stages of the diseases, it can be guaranteed that program costs will not increase. In other words, there is great potential benefit, but no downside risk to the taxpayer.
The Medicare Trustees issued their annual report detailing the financial state of America’s entitlement programs. The report echoed past conclusions: Medicare and Social Security are still going bankrupt. At its current pace, Medicare will be bankrupt in 2030 and Social Security will go bankrupt in 2034 (a year later than last year’s projection). Despite what many will herald as good news for Medicare, a deeper look at the data proves just how broken our current entitlement programs are.
Medicare Advantage (MA) is the alternative to traditional Medicare that offers seniors a one-stop option for hospital care, outpatient physician visits, and prescription drug coverage. MA is popular with seniors. Enrollment has increased every year since 2004 and reached 16 million individuals in 2014, which represents 30 percent of the Medicare population.
Medicare Advantage (MA) offers seniors a one-stop option for hospital care, outpatient physician visits, and prescription drug coverage. MA is popular; enrollment has increased every year since 2004 and reached 16 million individuals in 2014, which represents 30 percent of the Medicare population. Since 2008 MA plan performance has been rated on a 5-star scale to inform beneficiaries of the quality of plan options, and since 2012 plans with higher ratings receive bonuses that are in part returned to beneficiaries.
As the nation marks the 50th Anniversary of the creation of Medicare and Medicaid, it is important to both look back at how the programs have evolved, as well as forward at what’s to come. But be careful—the trajectory may alarm you. Between 2010 and 2023, total expenditures on Medicare and Medicaid will more than double to nearly $2 trillion annually, while enrollment during that same period is only expected to increase by 45 percent. Spending on Medicare did not surpass $500 billion until 2009, 44 years after the program began; but it will only take 13 years beyond that to increase by the same amount. In the 10 years between 2014 and 2023, average annual enrollment growth in both Medicare and Medicaid will be approximately 3 percent, while average annual growth in expenditures will be more than double the rate of enrollment for both programs—6.2 percent for Medicaid and 7 percent for Medicare.
The Medicare program was established 50 years ago and, as of 2013, provided health care coverage to 52.3 million beneficiaries at a cost of $583 billion. Serving 19.4 million beneficiaries in 1967, total Medicare expenditures were $4.7 billion. The growth in program expenditures is largely due to growth in the number of beneficiaries. However, growth in health care prices and the availability of more health care services has been a significant factor in the growth of real per-beneficiary spending, which has tripled since 1970. Between 1965 and 2010, average annual growth in health care prices outpaced general price inflation by approximately 2 percent. Average total spending per beneficiary was $12,210 in 2013, and will continue to rise. As the number of beneficiaries will also soon skyrocket—enrollment is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3 percent over the next decade, this combination will dramatically increase Medicare expenditures, expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2022.
Medicaid, along with Medicare, was created in 1965 as a joint federal-state entitlement program to provide health care coverage to any low-income individual or individual with disabilities who meets the eligibility criteria in his or her state of residence. The Federal government sets minimum eligibility criteria and program requirements which can be expanded by the state, and funds anywhere from 50 percent to 74 percent of a state’s Medicaid expenses, based on the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) formula. Every state has participated in the program since 1982.