Fiscal Cliff Scorecard
Fiscal Cliff Scorecard
The “fiscal cliff” is now broadly appreciated as an economic threat, and increasingly viewed as a recipe for a recession. There are seven legislative components of the fiscal cliff. The House has passed four bills addressing portions of this $539 billion disaster, reducing the risk of recession.
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Fiscal Cliff Recession Scorecard (As of November 12, 2012) |
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Fiscal Cliff Threat |
2013 Budget Impact (% GDP) |
House Action Taken |
Economic Impact After Action Taken (% GDP) |
Senate Action Taken |
Economic Impact After Action Taken (% GDP) |
|
2001/2003 Tax Laws & AMT |
$225 billion (1.3%) |
H.R. 8 |
None |
N/A |
-$338 billion (-2.0%) |
|
Payroll Tax Holiday |
$86 billion (0.5%) |
N/A |
-$129 billion (-0.8%) |
N/A |
-$129 billion (-0.8%) |
|
New ACA Taxes |
$18 billion (0.1%) |
H.R. 2 |
None |
N/A |
-$27 billion (-0.2%) |
|
Tax Extenders |
$65 billion (0.4%) |
N/A |
$98 billion (0.6%) |
N/A |
$98 billion (0.6%) |
|
BCA Sequester |
$109 billion (0.6%) |
H.R. 5652 |
None |
N/A |
-$164 billion (-1.0%) |
|
Unemployment Insurance |
$26 billion (0.2%) |
N/A |
-$39 billion (-0.2%) |
N/A |
-$39 billion (-0.2%) |
|
Medicare Doctors (SGR) |
$10 billion (0.1%) |
N/A |
$15 billion (-0.1%) |
N/A |
$15 billion (-0.1%) |
|
Total (% GDP) |
$539 billion (3.0%) |
Reduced recession risk |
-$281 billion (-1.7%) |
Recession |
-809 billion (-4.8%) |
