Polling Data on East Coast House Districts
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
East Coast Incumbent Shock: American Action Forum Polling Finds 52 Percent of Voters Say It Is Time for Someone Else
American Action Forum Releases Survey Results for 12 East Coast House Districts
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The American Action Forum commissioned live-caller survey polling in CT 04, CT 05, FL 24, NY 20, NY 23, NY 25, PA 03, PA 10, PA 11, PA 12, VA 05 and WV 03 – which were set by gender, age, and county consistent with past participation in the district. Each district included 400 interviews, for 4,800 interviews in the region. The East Coast analysis memo can be found here and the polling memos and crosstabs for the 12 district surveys can be found below. The polls conducted over a 3-day period focused on voter attitudes with regards to local incumbents, national political leaders, health care, the economy, debt, ‘cap and trade’ legislation and taxes.
- The aggregate deserves reelection/time for someone else result shows that 35 percent of the voters in these districts say their representative deserves reelection while 52 percent say it is time for someone else.
- A plurality of voters prefer a Republican on the generic ballot test. While each of these twelve districts have Democratic incumbents, voters in these districts prefer a Republican to a Democrat as their next congressman by a 38 to 31 percent margin.
- Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a nearly three-to-one margin. Sixty-eight percent of the likely voters in these districts say the country is off on the wrong track, while just 24 percent say the country is heading in the right direction.
- The economy is the most important issue in a top-of-mind measure, while controlling government spending and making Washington, DC accountable are also important in a closed-ended question. Forty-eight percent of voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country in an open-ended question. When presented with seven options in a closed-ended question, 26 percent of voters say “creating new jobs” is most likely to affect their vote for Congress, 21 percent say “controlling government spending,” and 19 percent say “making Washington, DC more accountable” are the issues most likely to affect their vote for Congress this fall.
- President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are both viewed unfavorably in these districts. Voters in these districts give Barack Obama a 43 to 50 percent favorable to unfavorable rating and give Nancy Pelosi a 27 to 57 percent rating.
- A majority of the likely voters in these districts opposes the health care reform plan. Voters oppose the new law by a 51 to 39 percent margin, including 40 percent who strongly oppose it.
“This is the first in what I hope will be a long-term commitment to researching what the American people are thinking with regards to policy and policymakers. The Forum’s research into voter attitudes is critical to better understanding how we can continue to make center-right ideas and policies relevant to the everyday struggles and triumphs that Americans face,” said Senator Norm Coleman, the CEO of the American Action Forum.
“Our nation faces dramatic policy problems, and these polls confirm that the American people have lost faith in the policy vision of Congressional incumbents. The challenge for center-right in the policy debate is to build on conservative principles to develop innovative new policies that address this dissatisfaction,” said Douglas Hotz-Eakin, the President of the Forum. “These polls tell us that the American people are turned off by the current policy leadership. It is our job to provide an acceptable alternative.”
View the East Coast memo.
Memos and Polls for individual districts can be found here: