Chinese Trade in Manufactures 2010 Q1

The Chinese figures for trade in manufactures, which we received last week, show the following for the first quarter of 2010 compared with 2009 and 2008, for global trade, in $billions:

First Quarter  
Exports  
Imports  
Balance  

2008
289.8
180.5
+109.3

2009
232.6
133.9
+98.7

2010
298.6
207.7
+90.9

Chinese exports of manufactures rose from $232.6 billion in first quarter 2009 to $298.6 billion in first quarter 2010 (28 percent). This number is also higher than the $289.8 billion in pre-recession 2008. The Chinese surplus of $90.9 billion in 2010 was smaller than the $98.7 billion in 2009, but this is likely to reverse in the second quarter -- the surplus declined in the second quarter of 2009 and is now on the rise.

As for bilateral trade, the absolute figures grossly understate the surpluses. 40 percent of the global surplus (first quarter 2010) is with Hong Kong, which then almost all turns into larger bilateral surpluses elsewhere through Hong Kong exports. In percentage terms, however, the Chinese surplus with the United States was up by 12 percent in 2010 over 2009, and the surplus with the EU was up by 19 percent.

We will have comparable figures for U.S. trade in manufactures for the first quarter, in about three weeks.