Employment Impact of Proposed Mandatory Part D Drug Rebates

| Economy & HealthCare | Douglas Holtz-Eakin
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The President and some members of Congress have proposed requiring that prescription drug manufacturers pay rebates to the federal government for drugs dispensed to Medicaid/Medicare dual-eligible beneficiaries and other low-income seniors through the Medicare Part D program. (The required rebates would be in addition to the manufacturer-paid rebates already in the Part D program due to the market-based negotiations between manufacturers and Part D plans). 

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimates that the President’s proposal will reduce federal outlays by $135 billion over 10 years.  However, the reduced revenue is likely to substantially affect the pharmaceutical industry, and OMB did not provide any estimates of the effect on jobs – somewhat ironic in that the President’s proposal came in the context of his “jobs bill.” 

In this short paper, we take a step toward filling that analysis gap.  In particular, using the historic relationship between revenues and employment, we find that by 2021 the proposal could reduce pharmaceutical and related employment by up to 238,000 jobs.

Click here to read the rest of the study.

Out of the Mouths of….Nominees

| Budget & Economy | Douglas Holtz-Eakin
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Erskine Bowles called the inevitable outcome of Obama fiscal policies “the most predictable crisis in history.”

The Bowles-Simpson commission outlined fundamental entitlement reforms.  President Obama kicked his commissions’ recommendations in the gutter.

But through it all, the president claimed he supported tax reform.  He even claimed to have put out a plan for corporate tax reform – even though it looked awfully thin to the experts’ eyes.

Now we know the truth.  There is no plan.  And there is no plan to have a plan.

According to Reuters, the the administration is not working on plans to reform the tax code: "We'd be negligent if we weren't doing foundational work ... But at this point there is no plan that has been developed," Mark Mazur, Obama's nominee for Treasury's top tax job, said at a Senate panel hearing on his confirmation. "We'll see how this plays out."

Even more depressing: “Baucus asked whether Obama, if he were re-elected, would have a comprehensive tax overhaul plan. Mazur said, "I can't promise that.”

I can promise you he won’t.  In 2008, there were questions about Barack Obama’s ability to lead this nation. After 4 years of watching the President observe events out the rear window from the back seat while both sides of the aisle waited for him to take the nation’s steering wheel, there is no more doubt.

No leadership.  No plan.  No surprise. 

White House Whiteboard Whitewash

| Budget & Economy | Douglas Holtz-Eakin
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The Buffett tax went down in the U.S. Senate on Monday night. But it wasn’t for a lack of sales effort by the White House.  President Obama seemingly cannot get through a public appearance without invoking it.  As part of the effort the White House rolled out another “whiteboard” by National Economic Council deputy Brian Deese.  It turns out this was more whitewash than whiteboard.

Evidently, the White House assumed nobody would check their claim that the income tax isn’t progressive.  We did.  Their mistake: it is progressive and they need some help doing taxes.

In the video, Deese describes three families and what he calls the “uber rich,” and then displays their incomes and effective tax rates.  Since America prides herself on a progressive federal tax code, and every serious study confirms that effective income tax rates rise with income, we were dubious of the White House claim that tax rates collapsed for the super rich.

In the table below, we duplicate the White House’s claims.  Then we attempted to replicate the calculations that produced them, to the point of asking the White House for the data, to no avail.

Since the White House has kept the underlying data under lock and key, I decided to inflict on the staff both a throbbing headache and a miserable weekend. I don’t know which is worse: not finding the answer, or having to watch that video 45 times.

Still, we made reasonable assumptions about filing status (single, head of household, married), numbers of dependents, exemptions, and deductions in a good faith effort to get to the same bottom line.

It can’t be done.

In the table, taxable income is income minus various deductions and exemptions.  To get in the ballpark, we took the average for each income bracket in 2009. In the next row is the actual tax for that income level. We presumed that the single mother executive assistant only had one child, and applied the appropriate child tax credit, lowering her tax liability to $3,430.  We made similar guesses at the families of he others.  Of course, we can’t be sure these are right because the White House won’t tell.

You’ll see in the last row that we’ve calculated the effective tax rates using this data and came up with 7, 10, 16, and 18 percent respectively.  That’s right: 7, 10, 16, and 18.  As Americans make more money, they pay a higher tax rate. This progressivity has been a defining feature of the U.S. tax code and the characteristic of every serious tax study. 

Executive
Assistant

Teacher &
Cop

Doctor

UBER
400

Income

$49,480/YR

$105,000/YR

173,900/YR

$110,000,000/YR

White House
Effective Tax Rate

16%

19%

23%

18%

Taxable Income*

 $33,580

 $71,945

 $136,489

$109,598,723

Income Tax

 $4,430

 $10,236

 $28,401

 $19,727,770

Tax Credits

$1,000

NA

NA

NA

Net Income Tax

 $3,430

 $10,236

 $28,401

 $19,727,770

Actual Effective
Tax Rate

7%

10%

16%

18%

*Assumes exemptions and deductions equal to average for income bracket in 2009.

So, how did the White House come up with its numbers? They added the payroll tax to the income tax… even though the payroll tax is mentioned exactly zero times in the not-exactly-pristine-white board. 

Executive

Assistant

Teacher &

Cop

Doctor

UBER

400

Income

$49,480/YR

$105,000/YR

173,900/YR

$110,000,000/YR

Net Income Tax

 $3,430

 $10,236

 $28,401

 $19,727,770

Payroll Taxes

 $4,503

 $9,555

 $11,615

 $3,196,572

Total Effective

Tax Rate

16%

19%

23%

21%

 

*Assumes exemptions and deductions equal to average for income bracket in 2009.

What do we learn from this?  First, we got the effective income tax rates right because the payroll tax rates calculation is not subject to any mystery. 

Second, the White House should brush up on tax policy. The Buffett rule is about income taxes. Income taxes that fund core government services.  The more money you make, the more you pay into these services like national security and education.

The payroll tax on the other hand, is not about paying for core federal government services. It’s about contributing to old-age programs from which taxpayers will also get back direct benefits.  Take for example our single mother. If she turned 65 in 2030, she’d have, on average, put in $485,000 over her lifetime.  But she will also receive up to $638,000 in benefits – a negative effective tax rate. 

Mixing income and payroll taxes without accounting for benefits received is fundamentally incomplete and misleading.  Effective tax rates done in this way and true effective tax rates are united only by a common ancestry in the integers. 

The Cost of Increasing Tax Rates On Capital Gains and Dividends

| Economy | Ike Brannon
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Both Republicans and Democrats increasingly agree that it is high time we reform the tax code — and that’s the extent of the agreement. Republicans aim to keep marginal tax rates down, in order to reduce the code’s drag on economic growth. Meanwhile, Democrats first and foremost want the code to further ameliorate growing income inequality.

Nowhere do these two goals conflict more than in the battle over the taxation of investment income. Reducing the tax rates on dividends and capital gains was a key precept in the Bush tax cuts, and the leading Republican political figures on the tax-writing committees vigorously defend them today. At the same time Democrats have decried the unequal distribution of investment income and have used the Republicans’ defense of the lower tax rates on this income as prima facie evidence of their overarching concern for the well-off.

But Republicans understand that treating capital gains and savings as ordinary income and subjecting it to a sharply higher tax rate is an expensive and ultimately counterproductive way to raise more revenue. While those with more income from capital gains would owe more in taxes, everyone would feel the impact of the lower economic growth that would ultimately result — as would our federal budget.

There is a wealth of evidence suggesting that higher returns to saving — which a lower capital-gains tax rate engenders — ultimately result in more saving and investment. For example, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers determined during his days as an academic economist that savings rates were extremely sensitive to the return on saving, and that high taxes on what our savings and investments earn significantly reduce how much we save. James Poterba, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, has done research showing that increasing the return on saving via the tax code strongly affects how much we save. In his studies of how the introduction of tax-advantaged accounts such as 401ks and IRAs impacted savings rates, he found that these innovations increased savings by roughly 30-40%.

More saving increases investment, which in turn increases productivity and future economic growth as well. Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas once said that eliminating the taxation on capital income was the closest thing to a free lunch that exists in this world. He estimated that the capital stock in the U.S. (i.e., the amount of plant and equipment available for workers to use) would be 50% larger if we did not tax capital gains and dividends at all. Our economy would be trillions of dollars larger in such a world, which, I submit, would make our current budget predicament much more tractable.

Ultimately economic growth is the key ingredient to generating the revenue necessary to cure our budget ills. The two periods when revenue grew the fastest in recent history were 1997-2000 and 2004-2007. In neither occasion did tax rates increase at all — but both represent periods of strong, sustained economic growth.

There is no doubt that there are wealthy people who take advantage of tax laws and manipulate their corporate form to exploit certain tax-rate differentials. Former presidential candidate John Edwards and his machinations with his corporate form to avoid paying self-employment taxes is just one example. We should strive to prevent this from happening as much as is possible, certainly, but devising a tax code that’s unfriendly to economic growth in the name of meting out justice to a small class of ne’er-do-wells is not an appealing trade-off to most people.

The goal of a tax code should be to generate the revenue necessary to pay for our government, in the most efficient way possible, with the smallest impact possible on economic growth. This vision has been waylaid in recent years as politicians of all stripes have used the tax code to pursue any number of small-bore policy agendas, with the result being a tax code that is complex and often contradictory, and that does very little to create growth. In an environment with trillion-dollar deficits and 8% unemployment, growth is more important than ever.

Reducing income inequality is an admirable goal. However, doing so by sacrificing economic growth, which harms those at all income levels, is not an acceptable tradeoff to most people.

This article originally appeared in Forbes.

Taxation is the art of plucking the goose...

| Economy & Taxes | Ike Brannon
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Yesterday the Japanese government officially lowered its corporate tax rate, leaving the United States with the highest tax rate among the ranks of developed countries. While a growing chorus on both sides of the aisle are calling to remedy this, there is no signs of it changing anytime soon.

How do the opponents of corporate tax reform justify the status quo? With an appeal to American exceptionalism: those who see no pressing need to change insist that our economy is so vibrant, so enormous, and our market is so essential that companies have no choice but to locate in this country, pay our high tax rate, and produce and sell here. (I’m loathe to point out that this is probably the only context in which these people believe in American exceptionalism)

But as our global economy becomes more integrated and capital becomes more mobile, that reasoning is becoming increasingly tenuous. 95 percent of the nation’s consumers live outside of the United States—a proportion that is only going to grow—and there is no shortage of companies earning a pretty dime catering to them and ignoring America.

But U.S. companies cannot afford to ignore overseas markets, and a high corporate tax rate makes it increasingly difficult to compete against countries that pay a much lower tax rate.

The philosopher Jean Baptiste Colbert once remarked that taxation is the art of plucking the goose as to obtain the largest amount of feathers with the least squawking. The corporate tax is akin to a pair of rusty pliers.